Fortum Q1 Rapport

Fortum redovisade ett resultat före skatt på 904 miljoner euro för det första kvartalet 2011 (713).

Rörelseresultatet blev 900 miljoner euro (724).

Omsättningen uppgick till 2.034 miljoner euro (1.947). Q4 2010 uppgick omsättningen till 1.902 miljoner euro.

Kassaflödet var 454 miljoner euro (521).

EPS 0,76 euro (0,63)

Kursen gick nedåt idag. Antagligen som en reaktion på rapporten då börsen i övrigt gick upp idag trots all oro. Kursen slutade på 20 euro. Det blev jag smått överraskad av då jag tyckte rapporten var bra, men förväntningarna var kanske för höga som brukligt är.

Kikar vi på räntebärande nettoskuld så har den minskat med nästan en tiondel sedan årsskiftet. Bra. Jag gillar när belåningen går nedåt inte uppåt.

VD:s ord:

“Our first quarter 2011 results provide a good basis for the year. The Heat and Russia divisions as well as the Distribution and Electricity Sales businesses clearly improved their results from a year ago. Power Division’s results were burdened mainly by a lower power sales price and clearly lower hydro volumes, which were partly offset by improved nuclear availability. Characteristic for Fortum’s business is its seasonality and in 2011 we expect the Power Division’s result to be more weighted towards the end of the year compared to 2010. This will be mainly driven by improved nuclear availability and current forward prices for power.

The Nordic power consumption decreased somewhat and the overall Russian power demand was flat in the first quarter of 2011. Industrial activity has clearly picked up in Fortum's key market areas and the Russian economy has continued along a solid path of recovery. Furthermore, the Russian power market reform progressed in line with the Russian Government’s decisions, liberalising the electricity wholesale market from the beginning of 2011.

In March, the world’s strongest earthquake in 40 years and the ensuing tsunami caused immense damage and immeasurable human suffering in Japan. The incident that followed in the Fukushima nuclear power plant has proven to be very serious.
An emergency meeting of energy ministers and nuclear operators convened by the EU
Energy Commissioner took place shortly after the incident in March. The proposed EU-wide safety reviews for nuclear power plants are an important step towards using more uniform international standards to test nuclear plant safety. An open dialogue about risks and nuclear power safety benefits both energy producers and consumers. The incident in Japan has not changed the underlying fundamentals of the Loviisa nuclear plant replacement investments. Major decisions concerning our sector must be made with careful consideration and with a longterm horizon, because they also impact the lives of future generations. The energy industry, and the electricity sector in particular, has become one of the most interesting branches of business
globally, and its importance will only grow in the future. Fortum therefore continues to look for further opportunities for future growth stemming from the need for CO2-free and energy-efficient solutions and the increasing demand for electricity.”

Det verkar också som det börjar släppa i Ryssland. Rörelsevinsten fördubblades till 34 miljoner euro (16). Bättre priser samt ett nytt kraftverk i bruk (from Feb 2011) sägs vara orsaken. I mitten av 2011 ska två till börja kunna leverera. De ryska investeringarna görs i Tyumen och Chelyabinsk regionerna. De gränsar till Kazakstan.

Q1 rapporten finns här

Jag anser inte att det är köpläge i Fortum just nu. För det vill jag se en lägre kurs. Nuvarande innehav får vara kvar då jag heller inte ser någon anledning till att avyttra. Såvitt jag kan bedöma i nuläget kommer Fortum fortsätta leverera 1 euro i utdelning.

Vad är din syn på Fortum?



Edit:

Lägger in utdrag från Fortums PM.

"The Government will not make any new decisions-in-principles on nuclear power. Fortum can not take Loviisa 3 forward during the next four years.

The Government proposes windfall and uranium taxes. In Fortum's view, the taxes are discriminatory and in clear contradiction with climate goals.

The Government will review support schemes for renewable energy. Fortum endorses cost-efficient, market-based and cross-border support schemes to increase renewable energy.

Fortum welcomes the Government's commitment to advance common European electricity market and smart grids development."

I sin helhet här

Hur det än blir med skatter/avgifter så är min bedömning att det blir, som vanligt, slutkonsumenterna som får stå för notan. I kombination med ett ev. större efterfrågan i Tyskland på import (p.g.a. deras energipolitiska beslut) kan detta naturligtvis driva upp priserna här i Norden samt öka behovet av import från Ryssland.